Job Market Paper
Adaptation Under Evolving Climate Uncertainty
Abstract
Adaptation is an increasingly attractive option for addressing the economic impacts of climate change. However, climate impacts are subject to significant climate uncertainty that will change over time as emissions are observed and geophysical models are improved. I use an ensemble of climate models to quantify the current extent of climate uncertainty in country-level economic impacts and construct a new empirical object to quantify its evolution. Incorporating these estimates in a real options model, I find that the optimal level of investment decreases in expectation from increasing the speed of uncertainty resolution. Because uncertainty from climate models comprises the majority of climate uncertainty, the results suggest increased climate science funding in the present may lead to savings in adaptation costs for vulnerable countries.
Working Papers
Climate Change, Population Growth, and Population Pressure
with J. Vernon Henderson, Adam Storeygard, and David N. WeilAbstract
We develop a novel method for assessing the effect of constraints imposed by spatially-fixed natural resources on aggregate economic output. Applying it to estimate and compare the projected effects of climate change and population growth over the course of the 21st century, we find that standard population growth projections imply larger reductions in income than even the most extreme climate change scenario. Further, climate change and population growth will have their most damaging effects in similar places. Relative to previous work on macro climate impacts, our approach has the advantages of being disciplined by a simple macro growth model that allows for adaptation and of assessing impacts via a large set of climate moments, not just annual average temperature and precipitation.
Works in Progress
Demographic Shifts and Fertility Measurement: The Case of South Korea
Abstract
Total fertility rate, the average number of children over a woman’s lifetime given current trends, is a key fertility statistic. Differences in TFR are often read as signals of behavior, but may also capture composition. I examine the contribution of behavior and composition for TFR variation over time and across regions in South Korea, which leads the world in lowest-low fertility. Decomposing TFR into age- and parity-specific fertility rates and parity rates by age, I find that composition effects comprise nontrivial portions of TFR differences for South Korea, sometimes exceeding that of behavior effects. Because shifts in demographic composition should influence TFR differently than behavioral distortions, this raises further concerns for the use of TFR to evaluate responses to fertility policy.
Information, Insurance, and the Shadow Price of (No) Adaptation
with Jiayue ZhangAbstract
This study disentangles the valuation of information shocks, insurance costs, and flood-resistant building regulations in housing prices of flood-prone properties following the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Participation in the NFIP entails a bundle including estimates of flood risk (information shocks), insurance at subsidized cost against that risk (insurance costs), and protective community regulations on construction in flood-prone areas (building regulations). By leveraging updates of flood maps as well as a policy change eliminating the grandfathering of favorable insurance premia, we separate out the initial information shock of being classified into flood-prone areas from capitalization of insurance costs. Zooming into transactions in which insurance premia were grandfathered in, we further identify the effect of protective building regulations. Explicit estimates of these three underlying forces are crucial to understanding the impact of NFIP, which will only become more relevant as flood risk intensifies with climate change.
A Historical View of Family Ties in the United States
with Daniel Crisostomo WainstockAbstract
A growing literature explores the effect of family ties on various outcomes such as comparative development, political participation, and moral values. Leveraging the linking of historical full count censuses, we propose a new measure of kinship intensity within the United States by exploring the passing down of first names within the family as a signal of the strength of family ties. We explore how family ties have evolved across time and space in the United States and how it correlates with comparative development.